エントリー個別記事

どや、香港へ行かへんか?

Thu, 05 May 2005 21:54:47

最近、経済雑誌などでもよく目にする「中国元」という文字。
なぜ、注目を浴びているのでしょう?

この中国元、現在は固定相場制となっています。昔のUS$1=360円の頃の日本円のように米ドルに相場が固定されているのです。

WTOにも加盟し、世界の表舞台に出てきた中国の通貨がいずれ為替相場制に移行せざるを得ない状況になるのは当然です。
また、為替相場制に移行する前段階としては中国元の切り上げが行われることは、ほぼ確実と見られています。

なんででしょう?

中国人民元はUS$1=8.3元に固定されているのですが、このレートは中国の今の国力から考えると低すぎるといわれています。
その被害を受けている最大の国は、アメリカ、そして、日本です。

アメリカの貿易赤字の大きな要因となっているのは他ならぬ中国ですし、日本のデフレの大きな原因となっているのは(というか、世界デフレの原因は)明らかに中国です。
国力に見合わぬ通貨レートに固定することによって、それは強力な輸出力につながっているのです。

これは昔の日本とアメリカとの関係でも同じような状況があったので、それを例にとって考えてみましょう。

1本10円の三菱鉛筆があるとします。
この、火を噴く鉛筆をアメリカへ輸出するとします。
(あー鉛筆は自動車ではないので三菱製でも火は噴きませんが、、、たぶん。)

US$1=\360の固定為替相場であれば、US$1で36本の鉛筆を輸出することができます。このとき、アメリカの物価では、どう考えても1本あたり10¢(セント)はするとしたら、どうでしょう?
自国ではUS$1で10本しか作れない鉛筆が日本からはUS$1で36本の安さ。
これなら品質さえ、良ければ売れまくるはずです。
(書いている途中で燃え上がる鉛筆では売れませんが。。。しつこい。。)

こんな状態が続くと、アメリカ政府も日本政府に圧力をかけ(外圧ですねー)
円の切り上げを迫ってくる。
そんな経緯があり、しゃーないのでUS$1=\240としよーか、という話になる。
それでも鉛筆はアメリカの自国製品がUS$1で10本なのに対して日本製は24本も買える。(んー、まだ安い!)
そして、街は日本製品に席巻されていくという寸法です。

この日本を中国に、アメリカを日本に当てはめると、最近のデフレの原因が見えてきます。

最終的には日本円は固定相場から変動相場に移行せざるを得なくなります。
(でないと、貿易相手国が黙っていないので、しかたがない。)
そして、US$1=\110だの\120位で計算すると、鉛筆なんぞは日本で作ってもアメリカで作っても同じ金額だったりする。
このあたりは物価が絡んでくるからなんともいえませんが「神の見えざる手」で為替が動くなら、国力に見合ったところに落ち着くはずです。

と、まぁ、そんな話。
国力に見合った為替というと、今の中国は1/3とか1/5とか言われている。
少なく見積もって半分としても為替が正常なレートになると倍になる計算。
あーた、金利ゼロでも倍でっせ。うっしっし。
(US$1=\240だったのが、US$1=\120になったのと同じ計算です。)

っつーことで、今月下旬に「シンセン」(センという字は文字化けする)
に行って中国元口座なんぞを開いてこようかな、と、思っているのです。

誰か一緒に行きません?(泊まりは重慶マンションあたりですが。。。)

中国元は現在、管理通貨のため国外への持ち出しが著しく制限されています。
そのため、海外では両替できませんし、外国から中国元口座を開くことすらできません。(香港ID保持者を除く。って、そら、香港人じゃ。)
が、しかし、パスポートさえあれば外国人でも中国国内では口座を開くことができるので、自由化される前においしい思いをしよう!という話です。
(おいしいといっても上海ガニはこの時期食べられまへん。)

ただ、おいしい話には落とし穴があったりするので、何があるかわかりません。
自国民を平気で戦車で踏み潰す国ですから、外国人の銀行口座の凍結なんていとも簡単にやるかもしれませんし、そうなったらただの紙屑になってしまうかもしれません。
以前お伝えした「100%確実に儲ける投資法」の逆であることは確実ですし。
(僕の逆張りをしろ!という話ですね。。。)

ま、博打好きにはたまりませんが。ふふふ。
詳しく知りたい方はメールくださいませ。

小富豪のための 上海<人民元>不思議旅行
海外投資を楽しむ会
東洋経済新報社
売り上げランキング: 145821

あ、タネ明かしちゃった。。。

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Zapatillas para ni?a. con cierre de velcro. suela interior de piel http://www.uastore.es/zapatillas-para-ni241a-con-cierre-de-velcro-suela-interior-de-piel-p-8262.html

Air Cooler

Women Mini Purse Crossbody of Cell Phone,Weathered Window with Flowers In Pot Wheels Farmhouse Rural Scene Front View http://www.yoostore.de/women-mini-purse-crossbody-of-cell-phone65292weathered-window-with-flowers-in-pot-wheels-farmhouse-rural-scene-front-view-p-4902.html
Chuck Taylor All Star Cribster. Zapatillas Altas para Ni?os. Blanco (White 865157c). 17 EU http://www.uastore.es/chuck-taylor-all-star-cribster-zapatillas-altas-para-ni241os-blanco-white-865157c-17-eu-p-816.html
Vintage Black Floral Print Bow Platform Stiletto High Heel Ankle Boots.LF30447BK35.35EU.Black http://www.mdworldstore.it/vintage-black-floral-print-bow-platform-stiletto-high-heel-ankle-bootslf30447bk3535eublack-p-5789.html
Pantoufles en coton pour femme Rose clair en peluche souple à bout ouvert http://www.deepstore.fr/pantoufles-en-coton-pour-femme-rose-clair-en-peluche-souple-224-bout-ouvert-p-19256.html
Air Cooler https://www.gdszlian.com/air-cooler-2/

Bruno Banani W 320.102. Portefeuille Homme

Hubei University https://www.eastjuntai.com/universities/hubei-university.html
Women Mini Purse Crossbody of Cell Phone,Aurora Borealis Over The Snow Covered Forest In The Northwest America Alaskan Winter http://www.acatostore.de/women-mini-purse-crossbody-of-cell-phone65292aurora-borealis-over-the-snow-covered-forest-in-the-northwest-america-alaskan-winter-p-14263.html
SIR BAMBOO. http://www.uastore.es/sir-bamboo-p-24117.html
Sandali Uomo Trekking. Sandali Chiusi Estivi Sportivi. Sandalo Bassi Outdoor Sport. Scarpe da Spiaggia Mare Escursionismo Casual Comodi Antiscivolo http://www.sonicstore.it/sandali-uomo-trekking-sandali-chiusi-estivi-sportivi-sandalo-bassi-outdoor-sport-scarpe-da-spiaggia-mare-escursionismo-casual-comodi-antiscivolo-p-14700.html
Bruno Banani W 320.102. Portefeuille Homme http://www.hitechstore.fr/bruno-banani-w-320102-portefeuille-homme-p-12893.html

Chad pour Homme Noir 39.5 EU

XZzry Sandalen Aus Leder Atmungsaktiv Flip-Flops M?nner Erste Schicht Aus Leder Pantoffeln Sommer-Strand-Sandalen (Color : Black. Size : 38) http://www.acatostore.de/xzzry-sandalen-aus-leder-atmungsaktiv-flipflops-m228nner-erste-schicht-aus-leder-pantoffeln-sommerstrandsandalen-color-black-size-38-p-7022.html
49530 Donna. Beige (Natural). 42 EU http://www.sonicstore.it/49530-donna-beige-natural-42-eu-p-7869.html
095000 0145 https://www.lcjiujiujiayi.com/095000-0145/
COMO Mocasines Hombre. Negro. 43 EU (9.5UK) http://www.sarstore.es/como-mocasines-hombre-negro-43-eu-95uk-p-47.html
Chad pour Homme Noir 39.5 EU http://www.hitechstore.fr/chad-pour-homme-noir-395-eu-p-23300.html

Up North Pu - Portamonete. 11 cm. Marrone (Marrone) - BWUIF1

J-Hayber New Olimpo. Zapatillas para Hombre http://www.sarstore.es/jhayber-new-olimpo-zapatillas-para-hombre-p-6022.html
Henni Halbschuh beige http://www.yoostore.de/henni-halbschuh-beige-p-8586.html
Filter https://www.greenplains.net/filter/
Femmes Chaussures De Toile Coquilles Toe à Lacets à La Mode Casual Chaussures Plates Femme en Plein Air étudiant Skateboard De Mode Baskets http://www.deepstore.fr/femmes-chaussures-de-toile-coquilles-toe-192-lacets-192-la-mode-casual-chaussures-plates-femme-en-plein-air-201tudiant-skateboard-de-mode-baskets-p-4285.html
Up North Pu - Portamonete. 11 cm. Marrone (Marrone) - BWUIF1 http://www.mdworldstore.it/up-north-pu-portamonete-11-cm-marrone-marrone-bwuif1-p-9392.html

Hunting Rifle Scope

Zapato MyCodeor Mocasín http://www.uastore.es/zapato-mycodeor-mocas237n-p-204.html
Autunno Alberi Stampa Borse a tracolla rotonde Borsa a tracolla da donna Cinturino in pelle PU regolabile e cerniera superiore Borsa piccola con manico http://www.sonicstore.it/autunno-alberi-stampa-borse-a-tracolla-rotonde-borsa-a-tracolla-da-donna-cinturino-in-pelle-pu-regolabile-e-cerniera-superiore-borsa-piccola-con-manico-p-14537.html
Go Walk 4 - Kindle. Damen Sneakers http://www.acatostore.de/go-walk-4-kindle-damen-sneakers-p-13689.html
Head Colorado Wallet 1154-05-tabacco http://www.hitechstore.fr/head-colorado-wallet-115405tabacco-p-11962.html
Hunting Rifle Scope https://www.chenxioutdoor.com/hunting-rifle-scope/

Bending Wire Mesh Machine

Stivaletti Winter Lady Stivale in Felpato Caldo in Cotone Scarpe in Pelle Scamosciata AntiGraffio Esterno Impermeabile Antiscivolo http://www.mdworldstore.it/stivaletti-winter-lady-stivale-in-felpato-caldo-in-cotone-scarpe-in-pelle-scamosciata-antigraffio-esterno-impermeabile-antiscivolo-p-5466.html
Ibiza Home 306. Zapatillas de Estar por casa con talón Abierto para Mujer http://www.sarstore.es/ibiza-home-306-zapatillas-de-estar-por-casa-con-tal243n-abierto-para-mujer-p-2509.html
MOMIN Professionnel Chausse Convient for Les Hommes et Les Femmes Portable et Facile à Porter Prenez Chaussures en Bois Chaussures de Chausse-Pied ne plient Pas (Color : Multi-Colored. Size : 38cm) http://www.deepstore.fr/momin-professionnel-chausse-convient-for-les-hommes-et-les-femmes-portable-et-facile-224-porter-prenez-chaussures-en-bois-chaussures-de-chaussepied-ne-plient-pas-color-multicolored-size-38cm-p-17299.html
Noelle Damen-Sandalen. niedrig. zweiteilig. Blockabsatz. Kn?chelriemen. Pumps http://www.yoostore.de/noelle-damensandalen-niedrig-zweiteilig-blockabsatz-kn246chelriemen-pumps-p-3928.html
Bending Wire Mesh Machine https://www.wire-mesh-making-machine.com/bending-wire-mesh-machine/

Nemesis Now Ghost - Portafoglio. Taglia Unica. Colore: Rosso/Nero

Shanghai Electric Power University https://www.eastjuntai.com/universities/shanghai-electric-power-university.html
Court Graffik Se. Chaussures de Skateboard Homme http://www.deepstore.fr/court-graffik-se-chaussures-de-skateboard-homme-p-21073.html
Herren Gt-2000 8 Sneaker http://www.yoostore.de/herren-gt2000-8-sneaker-p-7018.html
Para mujer Rodilla Botas. Botas Damas Oto?o Invierno Moda de Nueva Con el.Bronce.46 http://www.sarstore.es/para-mujer-rodilla-botas-botas-damas-oto241o-invierno-moda-de-nueva-con-elbronce46-p-5504.html
Nemesis Now Ghost - Portafoglio. Taglia Unica. Colore: Rosso/Nero http://www.sonicstore.it/nemesis-now-ghost-portafoglio-taglia-unica-colore-rossonero-p-16858.html

FC10 Sabots. Mules. Chaussons en Cuir de Qualité Supérieure Femme

Bolso de hombro grande con dise?o de Navidad vintage http://www.uastore.es/bolso-de-hombro-grande-con-dise241o-de-navidad-vintage-p-16145.html
XNG Nigerianische Pailletten Schnürsenkel Stoffe Hochwertige Tüll Afrikanische Schnürsenkel Stoff Hochzeit Franz?sisch Tüll Material???bild 1 http://www.yoostore.de/xng-nigerianische-pailletten-schn252rsenkel-stoffe-hochwertige-t252ll-afrikanische-schn252rsenkel-stoff-hochzeit-franz246sisch-t252ll-material160160160bild-1-p-20551.html
WMNS Tanjun. bianco/oro universitario http://www.mdworldstore.it/wmns-tanjun-biancooro-universitario-p-9230.html
Cheese Packaging Equipment https://www.cnmultihead.com/cheese-packaging-equipment/
FC10 Sabots. Mules. Chaussons en Cuir de Qualité Supérieure Femme http://www.deepstore.fr/fc10-sabots-mules-chaussons-en-cuir-de-qualit233-sup233rieure-femme-p-2596.html

Xinjiang Medical University

Sac a Dos Femme en Cuir PU Doux et Souple Cartable Fille à Fermeture éclaire Sac Porté Dos Scolaire Fille avec Bandoulières Ajustables http://www.deepstore.fr/sac-a-dos-femme-en-cuir-pu-doux-et-souple-cartable-fille-224-fermeture-201claire-sac-port233-dos-scolaire-fille-avec-bandouli232res-ajustables-p-16474.html
Botines para Mujer Camfosy. con tacón. Botines de tacón Cortos. Bonitas Puntas. decoración. cálidos. Forrados. Elegantes. cómodos. con Cremallera. para oto?o e Invierno http://www.uastore.es/botines-para-mujer-camfosy-con-tac243n-botines-de-tac243n-cortos-bonitas-puntas-decoraci243n-c225lidos-forrados-elegantes-c243modos-con-cremallera-para-oto241o-e-invierno-p-20119.html
Kiruna - Giacca Termica da Donna http://www.mdworldstore.it/kiruna-giacca-termica-da-donna-p-5471.html
95891-35 Damen Halbschaft Stiefel http://www.yoostore.de/9589135-damen-halbschaft-stiefel-p-3611.html
Xinjiang Medical University https://www.eastjuntai.com/universities/xinjiang-medical-university.html

Trolley Alpha Bravo Gris Oscuro/Verde Camuflaje 78.5 cm

Umh?ngetasche Schultertasche Halloween Eule Fledermaus Night Moon Castle Handtasche für Outdoor Gym Wandern Picknick Reisen Strand http://www.acatostore.de/umh228ngetasche-schultertasche-halloween-eule-fledermaus-night-moon-castle-handtasche-f252r-outdoor-gym-wandern-picknick-reisen-strand-p-17947.html
Floor Pattern https://www.morningstarstone.com/floor-pattern/
Scarpe da Ginnastica Uomo LN-207 http://www.sonicstore.it/scarpe-da-ginnastica-uomo-ln207-p-20418.html
Everton FC - Sac à chaussures de football http://www.deepstore.fr/everton-fc-sac-224-chaussures-de-football-p-23942.html
Trolley Alpha Bravo Gris Oscuro/Verde Camuflaje 78.5 cm http://www.uastore.es/trolley-alpha-bravo-gris-oscuroverde-camuflaje-785-cm-p-26172.html

Boiler Electrical

Bottes de Neige Mixte bébé gar?on Fille http://www.hitechstore.fr/bottes-de-neige-mixte-b233b233-gar231on-fille-p-24300.html
Damen Leisa Cacti. Korallenleder http://www.yoostore.de/damen-leisa-cacti-korallenleder-p-17224.html
Pioggia Stivali.Four Seasons Confortevole Blu Stivali da Pioggia di Moda Femminile Tubo Corto Adulto Ladies Stivali di Gomma Impermeabile Acqua Antiscivolo Scarpe Scarpe di Gomma http://www.mdworldstore.it/pioggia-stivalifour-seasons-confortevole-blu-stivali-da-pioggia-di-moda-femminile-tubo-corto-adulto-ladies-stivali-di-gomma-impermeabile-acqua-antiscivolo-scarpe-scarpe-di-gomma-p-19350.html
Patrón De Color De Línea Personalizado Zapatos De Plataforma Plana para Mujer Zapatos Goth Punk Creepers http://www.sarstore.es/patr243n-de-color-de-l237nea-personalizado-zapatos-de-plataforma-plana-para-mujer-zapatos-goth-punk-creepers-p-14167.html
Boiler Electrical https://www.aiboiler.com/boiler-electrical/

Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

BrillaBenny 1400 Strass thermocollants Aquamarine Bleu Mer DmC MC Quality Hotfix Rhinestone Aqua Crystal Glass Stone SS16/4MM Acquamarina Azzurro Mare (Agua - Aqua) http://www.deepstore.fr/brillabenny-1400-strass-thermocollants-aquamarine-bleu-mer-dmc-mc-quality-hotfix-rhinestone-aqua-crystal-glass-stone-ss164mm-acquamarina-azzurro-mare-agua-aqua-p-19426.html
Bolso de hombro grande con cremallera de dinosaurio animal http://www.uastore.es/bolso-de-hombro-grande-con-cremallera-de-dinosaurio-animal-p-15883.html
BIGJOKE Tropical Cactus Pattern Borse per Donne Tote Bag Top Handle Borsa a Tracolla http://www.sonicstore.it/bigjoke-tropical-cactus-pattern-borse-per-donne-tote-bag-top-handle-borsa-a-tracolla-p-16968.html
Galaxy bedruckte Schultertasche Chester Ben-Nington 1976 2020 Tribute Fashion Casual Star Sky Rucksack für Jungen und M?dchen http://www.yoostore.de/galaxy-bedruckte-schultertasche-chester-bennington-1976-2020-tribute-fashion-casual-star-sky-rucksack-f252r-jungen-und-m228dchen-p-6470.html
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology https://www.eastjuntai.com/universities/nanjing-university-of-information-science-technology.html

35mm Scope Mount

Women Small Cell Phone Purse Crossbody.Turquoise Dark Teal Stripes Thick And Thin Lines With Aqua Colors Pattern Art Print http://www.sonicstore.it/women-small-cell-phone-purse-crossbodyturquoise-dark-teal-stripes-thick-and-thin-lines-with-aqua-colors-pattern-art-print-p-11371.html
Women Small Cell Phone Purse Crossbody.Artistic Oceanic Figures Sea Horse And Calmar Pattern Drawing Effect http://www.acatostore.de/women-small-cell-phone-purse-crossbodyartistic-oceanic-figures-sea-horse-and-calmar-pattern-drawing-effect-p-9620.html
Leather Carbon Semelles de Rechange en Cuir et Charbon. Paquet de 6 Paires de Semelles en Cuir Naturel pour Homme et Femme avec Couche Inférieure en Charbon Actif. Toutes Tailles Disponibles http://www.hitechstore.fr/leather-carbon-semelles-de-rechange-en-cuir-et-charbon-paquet-de-6-paires-de-semelles-en-cuir-naturel-pour-homme-et-femme-avec-couche-inf233rieure-en-charbon-actif-toutes-tailles-disponibles-p-6022.html
Fitness Ocio Zapatos Ligeros para Correr Zapatos de Viaje Marea http://www.uastore.es/fitness-ocio-zapatos-ligeros-para-correr-zapatos-de-viaje-marea-p-16852.html
35mm Scope Mount https://www.chenxioutdoor.com/35mm-scope-mount/

Sneaker Bambina camoscio Sintetico Blu 26 EU

Sandales élastiquées - Femme http://www.hitechstore.fr/sandales-233lastiqu233es-femme-p-23711.html
Paredes SPRO CAMALEóN NEGRO REFLECTANTE Zapato Seguridad Cheste Talla 46 http://www.sarstore.es/paredes-spro-camale211n-negro-reflectante-zapato-seguridad-cheste-talla-46-p-27843.html
Schuhe Damen Stiefel Patent Leopard Stiefel mit Mittleren Abs?tzen Ankle Zipper Casual Mode Boots Schuhe Stiefeletten 35-43 http://www.yoostore.de/schuhe-damen-stiefel-patent-leopard-stiefel-mit-mittleren-abs228tzen-ankle-zipper-casual-mode-boots-schuhe-stiefeletten-3543-p-17046.html
Other brands https://www.qualfiber.com/other-brands-epon-olt-fttx-equipment/
Sneaker Bambina camoscio Sintetico Blu 26 EU http://www.mdworldstore.it/sneaker-bambina-camoscio-sintetico-blu-26-eu-p-19543.html

SOFTSHELL Jacket

Portafogli di pelle Colorful Floral In Doodle Style With Flowers And Birds Leather Zipper Clutch Bag Wallet Large Capacity Long Purse For Women Personalized http://www.mdworldstore.it/portafogli-di-pelle-colorful-floral-in-doodle-style-with-flowers-and-birds-leather-zipper-clutch-bag-wallet-large-capacity-long-purse-for-women-personalized-p-9458.html
Ride ISO 2. Zapatillas de Running para Hombre http://www.sarstore.es/ride-iso-2-zapatillas-de-running-para-hombre-p-1979.html
Herren Chck Taylor All Star Ox Sneaker http://www.yoostore.de/herren-chck-taylor-all-star-ox-sneaker-p-20123.html
D Sukie A. Sneakers Basses Femme http://www.deepstore.fr/d-sukie-a-sneakers-basses-femme-p-1340.html
SOFTSHELL Jacket https://www.ruishengarment.com/softshell-jacket/

Herren-Wanderschuhe. V-lite Wild-Fire Low I. wasserdicht

Sacs à Main Les Femmes Sac à bandoulière à bandoulière amovible avec bandoulière amovible pour dater shopping vie quotidienne Sacs Haut-Manipulez Des Femmes ( Color : Apricot . Size : Free Size ) http://www.hitechstore.fr/sacs-224-main-les-femmes-sac-224-bandouli232re-224-bandouli232re-amovible-avec-bandouli232re-amovible-pour-dater-shopping-vie-quotidienne-sacs-hautmanipulez-des-femmes-color-apricot-size-free-size-p-19638.html
Ortho-Bounce Sport. Chanclas para Hombre http://www.uastore.es/orthobounce-sport-chanclas-para-hombre-p-5545.html
Tote Borse Donna Borsa Elegante Borsa Totes Grande Capacità Top Handle Borse Per Shopping Lavoro Viaggi Affari Estate Vacanze Blu http://www.sonicstore.it/tote-borse-donna-borsa-elegante-borsa-totes-grande-capacit224-top-handle-borse-per-shopping-lavoro-viaggi-affari-estate-vacanze-blu-p-8141.html
Black Marble Mosaic https://www.morningstarstone.com/black-marble-mosaic/
Herren-Wanderschuhe. V-lite Wild-Fire Low I. wasserdicht http://www.acatostore.de/herrenwanderschuhe-vlite-wildfire-low-i-wasserdicht-p-5608.html

2750-cotu Classic. Sneakers Unisex-Adulto

Women Mini Purse Crossbody of Cell Phone,Upside Down Plants Graphic Design Gardening Greenery Flowers Cartoon Style http://www.yoostore.de/new-balance-624v4-womens-multisport-indoor-shoes-p-121.html
Clifton Edge - 47 1/3 http://www.deepstore.fr/clifton-edge-47-13-p-11252.html
Breeze GTX Botas de Senderismo para Mujer http://www.sarstore.es/breeze-gtx-botas-de-senderismo-para-mujer-p-24762.html
Filter https://www.greenplains.net/filter/
2750-cotu Classic. Sneakers Unisex-Adulto http://www.mdworldstore.it/2750cotu-classic-sneakers-unisexadulto-p-2856.html

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